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Welcome Video

Frequently Asked Questions

Is this service for beginners? No. One should be very experienced trading the markets and understand the risks of trading volatility ETFs.

How much can I lose on a single trade? You can lose your entire investment. VIXY and SVXY can go to zero overnight. For an analysis of what kind of move would cause a complete loss, read Which VIX Spike Could Kill XIV? Here Are The Numbers. Also read this from the prospectus:

...an Acceleration Event includes any event that adversely affects our ability to hedge or our rights in connection with the ETNs, including, but not limited to, if the Intraday Indicative Value is equal to or less than 20% of the prior day’s Closing Indicative Value.

Are these simulated results? Yes, these are simulated results. Read the disclaimer for more details.

Why did you start testing in 2011? This is when both VIXY and XIV/SVXY were trading available for trading.

Why did you not use synthetic data to test farther back? If you read this post Is synthetic XIV/VXX data safe to use? you can see why.

When did these signals become live? For portfolios 1 to 3, the signals are live since November 2016. For portfolio 4 to 9, they are live since October 2024.

What do you use for commission and slippage? We used $.01/share for commission and slippage.

What is the position size for each signal? It depends on the strategy.

Portfolio 1 – SVXY/VIXY has a maximum position size of 50% for VIXY. How does this affect the statistics shown? As mentioned in the notes above the statistics, we keep the position size smaller to reduce the overall risk of the strategy. All of the Portfolio Statistics (Compound Annual Return, Exposure, Drawdowns, etc.) are calculated on the total portfolio equity. For example, the best 3-month return for this portfolio is 63.2%. That means that if your account balance was $10,000 at the beginning of that three month period, it would have been $16,320 at the end of the 3 months. All of the Trade Statistics are calculated from the capital actually placed into the trade. For example, a 10.6% Average % Profit on Winning Trades means that, on average, the positions that were winners increased by 10.6%. This would translate to a 5.3% increase in the account value due to the 50% position sizing. SVXY has a 100% position size because it is a .5x ETF.

Do these portfolios use stops or profit targets? None are used.

How do I pick which portfolio to trade? Read the Choosing a portfolio post.

How do I receive the trades? Trades will posted on the night before the trading day by 9:00pm Pacific Time on the top of the Main page of the site and on the Posts page.

When are trades opened? Trades are entered at the open. Signals can happen on any trading day. For more information, see the How to place your orders post.

When do we exit the trades? Exit signals are executed at the open of the next trading day.

How do I read the signal table? Read this page for an explanation of the signal tables.

Am I guaranteed to make money trading these signals? There is no guarantee the trades will make money. These trades have shown a consistent edge for years. We trade them ourselves. There is a risk of significant losses not seen in the testing.

Does Cesar trade these signals? The strategy is part of his trading rotation. Each quarter he evaluates the about 10 strategies that are in his rotation and picks the best ones to trade for the following quarter.

How much money should I allocate to this strategy? We cannot give personal trading advice. Cesar allocates about 10% of his trading account into this strategy. Even though he has confidence in this strategy, one never knows when it will stop working or may blow up.

How do I get support? Please email us if you have any questions, we will get back to you within 24 hours (sooner in most cases). You can reply to any of our weekly emails or go to the Contact page.

How do I cancel my subscription? On the ‘My Account’ page, you can cancel your subscription. Or write us an email, and we’ll cancel you immediately. We don’t want anyone paying for something that they are not benefiting from.

How do I subscribe? Just click the ‘Start My Free Trial’ button on the Volatility Trend Trader page and you’ll begin receiving emails and have access to our blog and trades page.