Discover the algorithmic trading strategy that’s been consistently outperforming the market since 2008
Meet the Rocket Rail, professional-grade strategy that’s delivered a remarkable 23% CAGR since 2008, including a +33.3% return during the financial crisis when most traders were bleeding capital.
This isn’t your typical mean reversion strategy. We’ve engineered a sophisticated mean reversion system that combines proprietary market timing with unique uptrend identification, specifically designed for S&P 500 stocks. The results speak for themselves: 53.77% return in 2023, followed by 31.93% YTD in 2024.
Perfect for Experienced Traders:
Trades mechanical rules – no guesswork required
Only 10 minutes of evening preparation
Daily trading opportunities in liquid S&P 500 stocks
We’ve eliminated the emotional aspects of trading while maintaining the aggressive returns professional traders demand. This is institutional-grade strategy design meets practical implementation.
Average annual return over 20% over the last 12 years
Can be traded a minutes a day
Multiple portfolio based strategies to choose from
Trades only S&P 500 stocks
Long trades only
Over 60% winners
Positive returns in 15 of the last 17 years
The Genesis of Rocket Rail
Necessity breeds innovation. When members of The Crew – my private trading group – reported struggling with their mean reversion strategies and experiencing the same with mine, I knew it was time to develop something different. Something better. A robust S&P500 mean reversion strategy that could stand the test of time.
The journey wasn’t easy. For months, I tested countless approaches, but the results were mediocre – returns hovering in the mid-teens. Nothing worth sharing with serious traders. Then came the breakthrough. During a conversation with Steven, he proposed an innovative way to identify uptrending stocks. This insight was transformative, catapulting returns into the mid-20s. But I wasn’t satisfied yet – the drawdowns needed work.
By analyzing the patterns behind these drawdowns, I developed a proprietary market timing mechanism. The results were extraordinary. The strategy maintained returns in the 20s while dramatically reducing drawdowns to match. Even more impressive? It thrived during the most challenging bear markets – 2008, 2020, and 2023 – when most traders were seeing red.
The numbers speak for themselves: positive returns in 15 out of the last 17 years. But here’s what really convinced me we had something special: during optimization testing, we discovered our initial parameters were already highly effective. When optimization yields lots of strong variations, you know you’ve built something truly robust.
This isn’t just another mean reversion strategy. It’s a system born 40+ years of quant experience, refined through rigorous testing, and proven across multiple market cycles.
Testing period is from January 1, 2008 to September 30, 2024 and metrics are updated after the end of each quarter.
Live trading signals have been published on the site since December 2024. You will have access to all entry & exit signals since then.
Portfolio 1 – Aldebaran
Most conservative market timing. Because of this, this version has the lowest average of the top 5 drawdowns and the shorts average of the top 5 drawlengths (time in drawdown).
Portfolio Statistics
22.3% Compounded Annual Returns
83.6% Exposure
1.25 Sharpe Ratio
Top three drawdowns(-22.1, -16.6, -15.3)
-11.4% Worst 3 month return
-12.6% Worst 12 month return
+23.9% Best 3 month return
+64.6% Best 12 month return
0.58 correlation with the S&P500 index
Trades Statistics
4348 Trades with 65.4% winners
2.16% Average % profit on winning trades
-2.88% Average % loss on losing trades
4 Average trading bars held
-33.4% Worst trade
51.1% Best trade
Maximum of 5 positions
20% percent of portfolio per position
Equity Curve since 2008
Sample Winner
Monthly Returns
I have over a decade of quant trading experience and am the Chief Investment Officer for a quant-based advisory firm. I’ve known Cesar for 8 years and he is my first and foremost “go-to” resource for financial markets research, quantified strategy development, and coding. Unlike some theoretical “quants,” Cesar is also a trader. He understands the markets and the real-world limitations of broker order offerings, liquidity, and order placement. Rob Davenport, LCA Capital, LLC
Portfolio 2 – Elthor
This is version is a balance between the other two.
Portfolio Statistics
25.4% Compounded Annual Returns
82.0% Exposure
1.48 Sharpe Ratio
Top three drawdowns(-24.4, -18.7, -14.4)
-15.6% Worst 3 month return
-21.1% Worst 12 month return
+28.3% Best 3 month return
+76.0% Best 12 month return
0.64 correlation with the S&P500 index
Trades Statistics
4379 Trades with 67.4% winners
2.15% Average % profit on winning trades
-3.00% Average % loss on losing trades
4 Average trading bars held
-31.9% Worst trade
25.2% Best trade
Maximum of 5 positions
20% percent of portfolio per position
Equity Curve since 2008
Sample Winner
Monthly Returns
There’s no way I’d be professionally managing money today were it not for the professional advice and help of Cesar Alvarez. I’ve yet to meet a trader/researcher with such a superb understanding of the markets; as well as the dangerous trapdoors that await if you decide to develop your own quant system. Mark Angil, Architect of Midway II, 1st Place Winner of BattleFin’s Sharpe Ratio Shootout International Quant Finance Tournament 4.0 (Pro Division)
Portfolio 3 – Merope
Waits for farthest pullback. Does best in the bear market years of 2008, 2020 and 2023.
Portfolio Statistics
22.3% Compounded Annual Returns
80.2% Exposure
1.35 Sharpe Ratio
Top three drawdowns(-20.9, -19.6, -16.8)
-11.4% Worst 3 month return
-6.9% Worst 12 month return
+24.5% Best 3 month return
+75.8% Best 12 month return
0.57 correlation with the S&P500 index
Trades Statistics
4012 Trades with 66.7% winners
2.19% Average % profit on winning trades
-3.04% Average % loss on losing trades
4 Average trading bars held
-27.4% Worst trade
46.4% Best trade
Maximum of 5 positions
20% percent of portfolio per position
Equity Curve since 2008
Sample Winner
Monthly Returns
Start your free one week trial
During your trial you will have access to all previous trades and commentary. Cesar or Steve are available to answer your questions.
I have been corresponding with Cesar and following his work for several years. His research is first rate and his reports are clear and unambiguous. He is an expert trading system developer and programmer. Most importantly, he has discovered profitable and persistent patterns, and developed profitable and practical trading systems around them. Dr. Howard Bandy Recognized Quant Author
The Researchers
Cesar Alvarez
Cesar is well known in the quant community from his trading blog, Alvarez Quant Trading, where he shares his trading insights and research. He also consults with traders to test their trading ideas and help them improve their current strategies. From 2004 to 2013, Cesar was the Director of Trading Strategies at TradingMarkets.com and Connors Research. Cesar has also developed many strategies for private equity funds, is the author of multiple books on trading, and — in a former life — was a Software Engineer on the early versions of Microsoft Excel. After so many years developing well over 100 different methodologies, Cesar, like many true masters of his profession, has come back to the point of ultimate simplicity and efficiency as the best sustainable approach to active trading.
Steven Gabriel
Steven has an extensive history trading equities, options, futures, and volatility. For the past 13 years he has been a quant-based trader, working alongside Cesar on research for 100’s of different ideas, concepts, strategies, and systems. Steve is also an Emergency Room physician. But he only practices medicine half-time now, because his success in trading financial markets.
