Crew – College – Probability Cones

Using Probability Cones to Test for Strategy Death

The most common question I get is should you stop trading a strategy because you believe it is no longer working. It is also the question that I don’t have the best answer for. I have written several posts about this: Trading the Equity Curve, How to turn off a strategy using historical volatility, Broken Strategy or Market Change.

In the blog post Using Probability Cones to Test for Strategy Death, I go over using probability cones. In the presentation below I go over the post in more details and show how to use the spreadsheet provided. The Crew version of the spreadsheet, available below, is better version that the one on the blog post.

Ask any questions on this post.